Gambling Tip of the Month

by Jason Rigler

Roulette Reality

In roulette, each spin is a new spin and the outcome is not ever determined by prior spins. After six successive blacks, a black is as likely to come up as a red. You would argue that the reds and blacks will even out over a long run, and you would be right.

Consider this: (To simplify the explanations we are assuming there is no 0 or 00.) In, say, 1,000 roulette spins, you would have in theory 500 reds and 500 blacks appearing. You know they don't come up in turns one at a time; that is, you would expect to see two, three, four or more in a row in either color to appear.

If you were to count all the occurrences of six blacks in a row followed by a red, you will find an equal number of occurrences of six blacks in a row followed by a black (9 blacks in a row). You will also find an equal number of six reds in a row in the same way, making the total number of blacks and reds equal.

This is true no matter how many times black or red come up in a row, because for every occurrence of, say, 8, 10 or 20 blacks in a row followed by a red, there will be one with 8, 10 or 20 blacks in a row followed by a black.

After six blacks in a row, your chances of winning are still 50:50 whether you bet on red or black.

Tip: If you are influenced by previous results, then learn to bet with the outcome and not against it. You will eventually realize that it makes no difference.

Many players wait for something like four blacks in a row to appear and then bet on red, doubling up the bet up to four times (or more) if they lose. They do this believing that they have gained a sequential probability advantage. Wrong! Take a look at the following figures:

• Starting with one chip, if you double up your bet up to four times on red and win, you would win one chip. If you lose on your fourth doubling up bet, you would lose 15 chips (1 2 4 8 = 15). All it takes is one in 16 attempts that you lose and you would have lost all your 15 wins.
  
  
• Now, try the same double up strategy, but bet randomly on red and black. Just bet at will sometimes red, sometimes black, and on different tables. All you know is this: If you lose, you will double up your bet, up to four times. In a long run you should get the same results as your one-color one-table double up betting strategy.

The reason is that it is not the probability of color that is at work, but it is instead the probability of losing four times in a row on a 50:50 chance bet, which is 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/16. You would in fact in the long run win 15 times and lose one time every 16 attempts, on average. Net profit = 0.

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JasonR@ppicash.com